With the 2016 football season upon us, here at section of football predictions .I thought I might share a few thoughts and ideas on how to find an edge when betting on this sport.
Here are five football predictions rules that work for me personally, although I understand that not everyone will agree with me.
Football predictions rule #1 – Football Is For Betting, Not Trading
Football is one sport where the prices move in a pre-determined fashion. Back the 0:0 pre-game and the price will decay until there is a goal or the game ends. When a goal is scored, the market resets at a price dependent on the prices just before the goal was scored.
Football predictions rule #2 – Build Your Own Model
Keep records and collects data. While they may not suit everyone, I don’t see how you are going to find an edge any other way – unless you have access to inside information.
They are not the Holy Grail to success, but they make a good starting point.
Football predictions rule #3 – Know Your League
Not all leagues are the same. For example, of the Big Five leagues, the Bundesliga always sees a higher average number of goals per game than the French League 1 which always has lower average goals per game than the English Premier League.
Leagues may change their personalities over time of course, but the examples given have held true for the past few seasons.
Football predictions rule #4 – Specialise In Less Popular Leagues
As mentioned in the introduction, the big leagues are highly competitive, and if you are struggling to find an edge in the big leagues, it may be worth your while to specialise in some of the less popular leagues.
There is a wealth of data and information available these days, and money won from a mid-season match in the Croatian league is worth just as much as money won in the Champions league Final.
Football predictions rule #5 – Goal Expectancy
The serious, as opposed to novelty or fringe, football markets are all derived from the goal expectancies of each team. This is ultimately the key to successful betting on football. If you can calculate these two numbers more accurately than the bookmaker or the competition on the exchanges, you will be a long-term winner.
Take for example the opening English Premier League weekend’s game between Sunderland and Fulham. Your spread sheet tells you that Sunderland’s goal expectancy in this game is 1.25, while Fulham’s is 1.1. A simple tweak of the Poisson distribution and the Match Odds probabilities and implied odds come out as:
|Outcome||Probability||Implied Odds||Exchange Odds|
The prices currently available on the exchanges for this match are respectively 2.33, 3.5 and 3.5. There’s a 10% edge on laying Sunderland here, while the edges on the draw or a Fulham win are less, and of course your spread sheet can also give you odds on the Under / Over markets (Under 1.5 is the sum of the probabilities of 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1
Good luck in 2016 hope you got some idea through football predictions article. | Golden-picks.com